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Friday, April 28, 2017

That Blackjack Strategy Which I Will Use





We were sitting around just now, having a Friday Night Smash.

The Friday Night Smash is a long-held family tradition with we Flushers, starting with my parents who would make themselves a nice frozen dacquiri on a summer's eve.

I, Flushiepants, have embraced the legendary Friday Night Smash and in fact, improved on it.

First, I started expanding the league with a team on Thursday and the Thursday Night Smash was born. Wednesday Night demanded a Smash and promised to build a new bar to accommodate it, Tuesday and Monday Night Smashes dropped into place like totalitarian state domino countries.

Every night is special now, a Chez Flusher.

I haven't mentioned Saturday Night. Tablestakes. Goes without saying. Sunday night is my liver's night off.


"Can you pour me a bourbon from the bottle which I bought this afternoon?" I said to Mrs. Flusher who was making icy rattly sounds in the kitchen.

"That," she said.

"That what?"

"The bottle that you bought this afternoon."

"That's the one. Crank it open, grab the rock glass that is perfect for bourbon. Add ice. Add bourbon."

"WHICH. WHICH is a perfect glass for bourbon. The sentence needed the clause that that was connecting, so you use which."

"That that? Claws? You're a witch with claws??"

She held my drink in front of me.

"Which drink is the last drink I will ever make for you until kingdom come?"

"That one?"

The Quad Queen smiled and handed me my drink, that was a perfect Friday Night Smash.



"This is all well and good, but what about my blackjack strategy?" I whined.

"What about it?"

"Well... I need one. There are a million different craps strategies to figure out because there are so many bets. But for blackjack I'll be playing solid basic strategy. And after that... then what?"

"Count cards."

"I'm not smart enough to count cards. I can barely count change."

"Quit yammering at me."

And with that, I took my Friday Night Smash into the laundry room, which, when the ironing board is stowed, makes a pretty darn comfy Flusher Mancave, if I balance the laptop on my knees. And then I started typing this here blog post.

So, to recap, for the upcoming trip I have some craps strategies to use with my craps bankroll. I am going to stick with them in a disciplined fashion, and see what the results are like. I will be even more disciplined than a Doc Johnson Ball Gag tester.

I plan to have a blackjack bankroll the same size as my craps bankroll, and so I need some sort of strategy to keep me going on tilt. And basically, this means money management and controlled parlaying.

Now, I'm sure there are entire books about this sort of stuff and in particular, using the Kelly Criterion.

The Kelly Criterion prescribes the optimal amount to bet given the odds of the game and your bankroll. This allows you to increase your bets as your bankroll increases in the optimal way. And similarly, when losing, bet sizes should decrease.

I am not smart enough to count cards and I am not smart enough to fully understand the math behind the Kelly Criterion.
Jimmy Poon understands the Kelly Criterion formula. I understand the first letter.

See for yourself in this wikipedia article.

Royal Flusher's Friday Night Smashjack Strategy 

So basically, I want to sniff out some profit and increase my bets while winning, and decrease while losing. Here are the elements I'll use.
  • Buy in for $100
  • Start with base bet of $5
  • 3:2 blackjack only, strict basic strategy no matter what. 
  • Social exception - if playing with friends and drinking, play 6:5 until the first blackjack, then quit in a huff
  • Increase bets based on winnings. $150, start betting $7, $200, bet $10, $300 bet $15 and so on
  • Decrease bets on the way down
  • Use a vault to lock away winnings. When up, put about 2/3 in the vault, not to be touched so as to guarantee a winning session. So if up $200, put $120 in the vault. Up $300, $200 is in the vault.
Not very exciting, but with a good run of cards, the upside is there while protecting the bankroll.

We'll see how it works!







2 comments:

  1. You are more than smart enough to count cards. It's just "plus 1, minus 1". Doing it without getting noticed after you've had a few Makers.....well that could be a challenge!

    ReplyDelete
  2. Well this is what I was looking for. I am new to blackjack and just started playing few months back, so I constantly look for new strategy, tips and tricks so that I can improve my skills. Thanks for sharing this blackjack strategy.

    ReplyDelete

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