Wednesday, October 19, 2016

Practicing - Blessing or Curse?







I remember one trip that I spent a lot of time practicing my zen Video Poker skillz for. I practiced for hours, stretching back weeks before the trip.

A few days before lift-off, what did I do? Yup. Hit a fake Royal Flush on Winpoker.

You can take this two ways.

One, you can think "Shit, I've used up a Royal for nothing, and now there's no point in going to Vegas - but I'll go anyway because degenerate."

-or-


Two, you can thing "Holy crap, I am hot, hot, HOT and primed for blistering Vegas video poker Royal Flush Action."

So, I'm pushing my packing forward, minding my own business!, getting my HABA sorted out.

If you've ever worked in the grocery industry you know what HABA is. If you don't, you will in a second - Health and Beauty Aids.

And I certainly want to be Healthy and Beautiful in Vegas, and I need all the help I can get.

HABA - it's fun to say, it's convenient, and it's some third thing that I can't think of right now, so let's say it's fun to say again. HABA, HABA, HABA!

Where was I?

Oh yes - Mrs. Flusher walks in with her iPad and says, "Hey - take a look at this. This is what I've wanted in Vegas for years."

Yes that sure looks promising...

What did she get???

This.

Quad Queen win's 40,000 imaginary quarters on her iPad.
Things to note.

One. There is room for improvement. Getting this with a 10x spinner on quarters would be a very cool $100,000 win.

Two. Why is Michael Jackson involved in video poker?

Three. As I pointed out to the Quad Queen, at 97% accuracy, she probably won't do well at video poker.

Four. When I regained consciousness, I apologized for the 97% comment.

Three. Blessing or curse???

Let's hope it is a harbinger of good things to come!!!!

5 comments:

  1. Wow....It's hard to visualize where the math is on this one. it is 1 in 649,740 to be dealt a royal flush. I know this as my wife was dealt one last April playing deuces at Planet Hollywood. (And I googled it to confirm my #'s)It is give or take a few, 1 in 40,000 to hit a royal. Is that on the person? the machine? I don't take chances and play VP simulations to reset my 40,0000 clock back to zero. Although, I have had up to three royals in one trip so who knows! I'm so confused!

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    1. Excellent question, and a commonly misunderstood part of statistics. In the very long term, you will average one royal flush approximately every 40,000 hands (playing Jacks or Better with perfect strategy - the number is more like 48,000 for Double Bonus). However, these royals are not *periodic* events. It is possible to have two within 15 minutes, or go 250,000 hands or more between royals. So you never "reset your clock", whether personal or machine-based, to zero. There is no such thing. It is the same principle as a "500-year flood". That means the probability of a flood of such magnitude in any given year is one in 500. It does not mean that you are safe for the next 499 years after one happens.

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    2. I'm going to convince myself that she only used up 10 royals from the set of 'practice at home 500 year royal drought' statistics.

      I am a firm believer in clumping of royals though. I think it's almost more likely to have a bunch of them together, than to have them more evenly separated. Feast or famine!

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  2. yeah I know but I am superstitious that way. It's kinda like the bad feeling I get when I switch to deuces and get aces/kicker. I know the circumstances are different but, it still pisses me off to no end!

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