Thursday, April 20, 2017

Royal Flusher Meets The Dice Doctor





The upcoming trip is shaping up! The odd offer continues to dribble in and onto the carpet, like 90% of what Chippy drinks as she's walking away from her bowl.

A dribble here, a dribble there... it all adds up.

Two nights Sunday to Thursday and $0.00 freeplay is what I call a bit of Nugget Love. Can't decide between smooth and crunchy for that 'offer'. And The Orleans (not just any Orleans) threw 3 nights and a BJ tournament at me.

Sadly the dates don't line up or I would have them on their knees. Financially speaking, of course.

Binions continues to shower me with freeplay, ponying up $10.00 in the month of June. It's half the usual amount, but it's also for only one month and not two.

But what about the actual gambling once I get there? How is that going to shake out? Well, I have a plan. And it starts at the craps table.

I recently re-read The Dice Doctor by Sam Grafstein and coughed up a review of it over on Royal Flusher World.

I think think this book is critical reading for any craps player who is past the basics of passline with odds bets, placing numbers, come bets, field and hardways bets, and knows some of the odds for payouts. I like a lot of Sam's ideas, and I spent some time forging a craps strategy for my upcoming foray into the wild (yet well-groomed, trimmed and fertilized) kelly green felt of the craps tables in Las Vegas.

Here are the basic pieces I came up with. (If these don't seem to make sense, have a look at the book review linked above.)

Qualified Shooter

Sam says not to bet on any new shooter until they have made a successful pass. This can include a natural (7 or 11 on the come out roll), or making a point.

Sound flakey, superstitious, ungrounded and more than a little bit anal? The qualified shooter is all that, but then again, so is Randy Quaid.

If anything, using the Q.S. approach will slow down my play, making it easier to overcome the house edge in free drinks.

Use the Lockup Rack

The lockup rack is a place to put winning chips that you will not play again in the current session. What goes into the lockup rack is what you win on a roll, minus what it takes to execute the next bet, including odds. It's so simple, even the CRA and IRS could do it. Hmmm, actually, that's pretty much what they do, take your chips and put them in the lockup rack.

Bankroll

I'll have a certain craps bankroll, and I'll take enough for one session - aka enough to cover 10 qualified shooters, and whatever odds there might be at my starting bet level, which will be $5 on the passline. Until things are going badly... when it will be $3 on the passline at the Fremont. And if things to really badly, it'll be 37 cents and a BOGO coupon for American Coney Island.
What in the name of Dog has this got to do with CRAPS???
Hmmm.
For the basic strategy I'm outlining here, that session bankroll amount is $110.

Emotionless Machine-like Precision and Self Control

My session bankroll of $110 gives me enough to bet on ten qualified shooters, in a systematic, pre-programmed way. There is no way I could possibly go on tilt using my adapted strategy. None.

And 420 is 'just a number'. And unicorn frapps might just fly out my multi-colored butt. (No, they really might.)

By the way, happy day to certain of you folks, and congratulations for managing to pay attention thus far.

Strict Rules of Natural Parlay

I really like this one and it's worked brilliantly for me for years now, in the sense that I've probably lost less using it than not.

How many times have you seen a shooter roll a 7 or 11 and immediately follow up with another 7 or 11? Well? How many??

I have seen it 1,038 times, notwithstanding a "no roll" when the dice landed on top of each other. So, 1,037 times.

The tactic is simple. If a 7 or 11 rolls on the come out, parlay the winnings. If a second natural follows, take the win. (You'd also go up to the next pass line betting level - more on that below.)

Brilliantly, if a point is rolled instead on the second roll, don't take odds - what you would have put down in odds is already covered by the first parlay. This is a very smart move for protecting your bankroll. Damn, devious Dice Doctor!!! Just.... DAMN!!!!

Take Single Odds

Yep. Single odds. That keeps my session bankroll low, and way lowers the volatility. Sure, I may miss out on some dough when the point hits, but what I'm looking for is that one monster roll, and a chance to parlay and ride that hot streak to riches. And you've got to be in it to win it.

Think about it, with $110 bankroll, if I'm putting $5 on the pass line and say triple odds of $15, it would take just five point seven outs in a row to use up $100 of it. If you are adding a couple of place bets, or a come bet with odds... you could be wiped out in four point seven outs. By taking double or triple odds with a bankroll this size, I'd be playing way over my head.

Crap Rules of Parlay

This is how, as Mr. Doctor would say, you "get the money":

Parlay.

For each successful pass, I'll increase my starting bet by about 50%, and the odds appropriately. I'll follow Mr. Dr.'s numbers on this, starting with $5. So, with each successful pass, I'll parlay as follows for the next come out roll:

$5,  $7,  $10,  $15,  $25,  $35,  $50,  $75,  $125 (gulp), $175,  $250 (Jesus!),  $375 (AHHHHHH!!!), $500 (Fainting...), $750 (I can't look) and so on, right up to the table limit (RANDY QUAID!!!).

Craps

Roll of 2, 3 or 12 on the come out? I'll lower my pass line bet down to the beginning level again.

Those are the basic elements of my craps strategy - I'll put them all together into a few variations with snappy names in the next post.

Bankroll Parlay

Once a session of betting on ten qualified shooters is complete, if there is enough bankroll, start again at the next highest betting level as the basic pass line unit. For example, after running through $110 on ten shooters, if I have say $90 profit for a total of $200, I can start again, parlaying to the $7 level.

Taking single odds, I want $10 in odds for the 6/8, and $8 in odds for the 5/9 and 6/4. Odds on the 6/8 pay 6 to 5, so a multiple of five is best. $8 works for the 6 to 4 odds on the 5/9 as well as the 6 to 3 odds on the 4/10.

So, assuming that all ten points are the 6 or 8, I need a session bankroll of $170 - ten passline bets of $7 = $70, and ten odds bets of $10 = $100.

Flusher Tip: I remember the payout for odds bets this way. Looking at the craps layout, you see the 6 box, and to the left of it is the 5 box. Payouts for the 6, 5 and 4 are: 6 to 5, 6 to 4, 6 to 3. It has a nice rhythm to it. The odds payouts are mirrored on the other side of the seven - 6 to 5, 6 to 4, 6 to 3 for the 8, 9 and 10.

C'mon back soon!

Special shout-out to the lovely lady who donated a majestic sum to the blog. Jimmy Poon will definitely score that new mouse cable he's been itching for! Thanks, Liz!!!




2 comments:

  1. I'll be in Vegas in 3 weeks (May 7 to 12), staying downtown. If I see someone come in for $110 I'll buy him a Makers Mark and ask for a card. Gonna be real embarrassing if his name is Four of a kind Frank and not Royal Flusher though. - wpete

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  2. You can't beat negative expectation games in the long run with betting progressions/regressions. Craps can be beaten with dice control, but this is very difficult to do---its much more difficult to accomplish than card counting.

    Read Frank Scoblete's book "Beat the Craps Out of the Casinos". When betting on random rollers, he recommends the following:

    1) Look for shooters who set the dice, and seem to have a fluid, controlled throw. (Avoid the "chicken feeders", and shooters who ram the dice down the table).
    2) Use the "Five Count" before betting on any shooters.

    3) Place the "6" and "8", or make several come bets with odds.

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